This report presents 20-year forecasts of exports and imports of containerised and non-containerised freight and sea passenger movements through Australia's five largest capital city ports and, in aggregation, all other ports. The forecasts, which update those previously published by BITRE in 2002, 2006 and 2010, are driven by population, real income, exchange rates, import prices and export prices. The most recent economic outlook and population growth forecasts for Australia and its major trading partners have been used to derive the forecasts. The forecasts imply that Australia's sea trade will double over the next 20 years, largely due to the continuing positive economic outlook for Australia and its major trading partners. The long-term outlook for the cruise shipping industry is also positive, largely due to the projected economic growth in source countries of cruise passengers, particularly the USA.

• Containerised and non-containerised trade through Australian ports to 2032–33
  
  report_138.pdf
  (1.97 MB)

BITRE Information Sheet 60 provides detailed long-term trend statistics for Australian urban passenger transport. Historical time-series on passenger movement within the Australian capital cities, covering more than a century, contrast changes over time in patronage on urban public transport (UPT) systems with the corresponding patterns of private road vehicle use.

• Long-term trends in urban public transport
  
  is_060.pdf
  (1.77 MB)

• Urban Transport Summary for 2013
  
  is_059-060.xlsx
  (518.22 KB)
• Latest urban transport statistics
  
  is_059-060_latest.xlsx
  (621.57 KB)

BITRE Information Sheet 59 summarises recent trends in Australian urban passenger transport–contrasting strong growth in urban public transport (UPT) over the last decade (with 2013 task levels almost 30 per cent higher than 2004) with that of private road vehicle use (with car travel in 2013 only about 3 per cent higher than 2004). Details or trend statistics are provided, across the State and Territory capital cities, for modal composition, travel growth rates, UPT cost recovery and transit service levels.

• Urban public transport: updated trends
  
  is_059.pdf
  (1.77 MB)

• Urban Transport Summary for 2013
  
  is_059-060.xlsx
  (518.22 KB)
• Latest urban transport statistics
  
  is_059-060_latest.xlsx
  (621.57 KB)

The Information Sheet models and forecasts urban passenger travel in Australian and American cities from 1921 to present. Passenger travel per person is saturating and so future growth in total urban travel will be closely linked to population growth.

• Saturating daily travel
  
  is_061.pdf
  (1.05 MB)

This report allows understanding on forecasting of city passenger travel by motor vehicles and urban public transport. It will aid planning and policy development regarding urban public transport and motor vehicle traffic in cities.

• Public transport use in Australia's capital cities, Modelling and forecasting
  
  report_129.pdf
  (7.12 MB)

Paper given to the 31st Australasian Transport Research Forum, 2 October–3 October 2008, Gold Coast. Authors: Godfrey Lubulwa, Rob Bolin, Ben Slatter, Tony Carmody

• Container and Ship Movements Through Australian Ports: 2007–08 to 2029–30, Preliminary Estimates
  
  sp_004_Lubulwa_Bolin_Slatter_Carmody.pdf
  (1.28 MB)

Paper given to the 31st Australasian Transport Research Forum, 2 October–3 October 2008, Gold Coast. Authors: David Gargett, Afzal Hossain

• Road Freight Estimates by State/Territory
  
  sp_003_Gargett_Hossain.pdf
  (533.54 KB)

This Occasional Paper reports on an analysis of the factors affecting the demand for international air travel. This analysis serves as a basis for forecasting the response of demand to changes in key policy variables, in particular fares and some aspects of the level of service. The implications for demand for travel to and from Australia of several alternative fare service packages are presented.

• Factors Affecting Demand for International Travel to and from Australia
  
  op_011.pdf
  (4.48 MB)

This paper describes an econometric model designed for Australian economic forecasting in the medium term (from 5 to 10 years). The paper also gives the results of applying the model to predict annual national expenditure and product, in the aggregate and by main components, over the period 1976 to 1983.

• Model for Medium Term Economic Forecasting: Projections of Australian Income and Expenditure
  
  op_014.pdf
  (1.57 MB)

The Paper presents methods used for forecasting future passenger and aircraft movements at Sydney Airport. Forecast movements at 5-year intervals to the year 2000 are also presented using these methods, on the basis of assumptions about the future course of many underlying determinants such as population, income, fares, aircraft types, load factors and so on. The forecasts were prepared in support of the Major Airports Needs of Sydney (MANS) Study, and embody assumptions adopted by a Forecasting Consultative Group consisting of members drawn from various Commonwealth and State Government bodies.

• Sydney Region Aviation Forecasts
  
  op_025.pdf
  (4.7 MB)