The emphasis in this paper is on the development of a suitable conceptual and operational framework within which a policy-sensitive empirical travel choice model could be estimated. Functional Measurement and Discrete Choice Theory provide the theoretical base from which models of individuals' choices can be derived. The aim of this paper is to outline a method which is capable of identifying international air fare structures to various destinations that accord with the likely choices of individuals (both current and potential travellers). The information obtained will permit the determination of a reduced-set of feasible air fare structures which represent a compromise with the full range of possible alternatives. Particular emphasis is given to identifying the variation in frequency of choice of international air travel to various destinations as a result of changes in air fare structures.

• Demand for International Air Travel: a Conceptual and Operational Framework
  
  op_046.pdf
  (2.55 MB)

The study undertaken to produce road travel projections, and reported in this Occasional Paper, had three basic elements. Firstly, recent trends in road travel were identified. Secondly, past patterns of the demand for road travel were analysed and, wherever possible, such demand relationships were quantified. Thirdly, scenarios relating to the future environment for road travel were developed and projections made.

• Assessment of the Australian Road System: Travel Projections
  
  op_060.pdf
  (5.79 MB)

This Paper presents a demand analysis of New South Wales regional and commuter intrastate air services. The main objective of this study was to provide forecasts of patronage to the year 2000 for New South Wales regional and commuter intrastate air services. The results may assist in understanding the demand for intrastate aviation services and help in the evaluation of policy options.

• Demand for NSW Intrastate Air Travel
  
  ip_017.pdf
  (2.66 MB)

This Paper examines the demand for air travel in Australia and forecasts domestic passenger and freight aviation demand to the end of the century at five-year intervals. The analysis begins by reviewing recent trends in patronage and air fares. It then identifies other major factors affecting demand as background for the empirical analysis. The study period for the empirical analysis covers the past eight years, 1977 to 1984, using quarterly data. The models provide, among other things, estimates of price and income elasticities of demand (or demand responses) for air travel in Australia. Finally, the Paper presents forecast growth rates for air travel subject to different future growth scenarios to the year 2000.

• Demand for Australian Domestic Aviation Services: Forecasts by Market Segment
  
  op_079.pdf
  (5.51 MB)

The lack of comprehensive data on transport operations is a long-standing problem in transport research. Information on road transport in particular has proved difficult to obtain. This Paper documents a study which was aimed at developing and testing a technique to estimate long-distance passenger and freight movements based on direct observation of vehicle movements.

• Number Plate Survey Methodology for Long–Distance Traffic Flows
  
  op_081.pdf
  (4.21 MB)

There has not been a comprehensive study of trends and changes in the institutional and commercial parameters which affect Australia's international aviation industry since the International Civil Aviation Policy review of 1978. The aim of the work reported in this Paper was to document the significant developments in international aviation on both a global scale and for Australian routes in particular. The historical trends in supply of and demand for international air passenger services to and from Australia are examined and the information used to forecast passenger numbers to the year 2000 for various markets.

• Trends and Prospects for Australian International Air Transport
  
  op_088.pdf
  (7.31 MB)

Forecasts for both domestic and international aircraft movements are generated for the years 1990, 1995 and 2000. From these forecasts growth rates in aircraft traffic have been calculated for the major international airports and for the major sectors in the Australian domestic aviation network. The time series model produces annual aircraft movements whereas the simulation model produces movements for a standard business day divided into morning, midday and evening periods.

• Forecasting Aircraft Movements at Major Australian Airports
  
  op_092.pdf
  (5.42 MB)

In the past, there have been many occasions when decision makers have wanted to know the likely effects of proposed policies on the different transport industries involved in moving non-bulk freight around Australia. Their decisions have been hampered by a lack of data on the magnitude of, and trends in, nonbulk freight flows between capital cities and almost no usable estimates of the determinants of intercapital freight flows on all modes.

• Freight Flows in Australian Transport Corridors
  
  op_098.pdf
  (5.42 MB)

The study focuses on the current major transport fuels, which in 1988–89 accounted for 93 per cent of Australia's transport sector energy consumption: petrol (leaded and unleaded), automotive diesel oil, fuel oil and aviation turbine fuel. Major demand forecasts examined include those of the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research and the Australian Institute of Petroleum, based on forecasts by oil companies, to the year 2000. From an examination of these forecasts and derived own-price elasticities, the study concludes that only relatively large increases in fuel prices are likely to produce anything more than non-marginal reductions in the levels of fuel demand.

• Demand Forecasts and Demand Elasticities for Australian Transport Fuel
  
  op_103.pdf
  (4.84 MB)

The Paper details emissions from various segments of the transport sector, discusses the magnitude of the task involved in reducing transport emissions, and examines the potential for reducing them by alternative means. These include fuel economy improvements, use of alternative fuels, transport system improvements including modal shift, and reductions in discretionary travel.

• Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Australian Transport
  
  wp_001.pdf
  (6.07 MB)