For cost-benefit analyses (CBA) of public-sector projects, a common misconception is that the discount rate should include a risk premium in consonance with the private-sector practice of doing so. In examining the issue, this report addresses different types of risk separately including downside risk, which arises from optimistic bias in forecasts and pure risk, which is the variation remaining around the mean after removing downside biases.

• Risk in Cost-Benefit Analysis
  
  report_110.pdf
  (1.27 MB)

This report profiles significant sectors of the general aviation industry, identifying the major changes in the operating environment affecting general aviation, identifying and explaining where possible the trends in sector activity.

• General Aviation: An Industry Overview
  
  report_111.pdf
  (2.9 MB)

The paper and associated database directly tackle the issue of quantifying economic growth in regions. BTRE derived regional economic activity indices for every Local Government Area in Australia from 1980–81 to 2004–05. The figures are based on Australian Taxation Office individual income data which have been reworked to allow easy comparisons between standard regions and over time.

• Focus on Regions No 3: Taxable Income
  
  ip_054.pdf
  (2.25 MB)
• Taxable Income Database [updated 23 Jan 2008]
  
  
  ip_054.xls
  (4.71 MB)

This report is part of a series of BTRE research on the socioeconomic costs of transport impacts and focuses on the health impact costs of motor vehicle emissions in Australian capital cities.

• Health Impacts of Transport Emissions in Australia: Economic Costs
  
  wp_063.pdf
  (3.19 MB)

Paper given to the Grains West Expo 2005 at Scarborough Beach WA, 19–20 July by David Gargett, Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics.

• Freight rates and competitiveness
  
  sp_001_freight_rates.pdf
  (1.41 MB)

Staff paper given by Dr Mark Harvey to the 28th Australasian Transport Research Forum, 28–30 September 2005, Sofitel Wentworth Hotel, Sydney.

• The Economic Efficiency of Lane Differentiation Policies
  
  sp_003_Economic_Efficiency_of_Lane_Differentiation_policies.pdf
  (855.26 KB)

Staff paper given by Lyn Martin to the 28th Australasian Transport Research Forum, 28–30 September 2005, Sofitel Wentworth Hotel, Sydney.

• External Accident Costs of Motor Vehicles Revisited
  
  sp_002_External_Accident_Costs_of_Motor_Vehicles_Revisited.pdf
  (822.47 KB)

Social capital theory proposes that social networks and norms have a role to play in influencing a community's development. This paper presents and analyses statistical information relating to social capital in Australia and its regions, using a set of 33 social capital indicators for 2001–02. It also explores the relationship between social capital and the economic and social wellbeing of Australia's regions. The paper is accompanied by the BTRE's Social Capital Indicators Database.

• Focus on Regions No 4: Social Capital
  
  ip_055.pdf
  (9.47 MB)
• Social capital indicators
  
  
  ip_055.xls
  (987.5 KB)

The Australian Government's AusLink initiative represents a new approach to planning and funding Australia's land transport infrastructure. Under AusLink the Australian Government will fund projects that have the greatest contribution to Australia's long-term economic prosperity, irrespective of the transport mode. AusLink will involve an integrated approach to planning, with three complementary levels of analysis:

1. strategic network assessment;
2. corridor assessments and;
3. detailed project assessments.

Projections of future transport demand are a critical input into these assessments. In order to undertake more informed strategic network assessments, the BTRE has developed two models for projecting future non-urban passenger and freight transport demand: OZPASS non-urban passenger travel forecasting model; and FreightSim inter-regional freight forecasting model. This paper outlines the structure of these models and demonstrates their application to projecting future passenger and freight movements across the non-urban sections of the AusLink National Network. Readers should note that the road traffic projections presented in this paper are based on passenger travel and freight movement data for 1999 and road traffic data for various years between 1993 and 1996. These data sets were the most up-to-date data available to the BTRE when the analysis was undertaken. The BTRE intends to update these projections, using more current passenger and freight movements data, more recent regional population estimates and, in cooperation with the States and Territories, more recent road traffic data, when this data becomes available.

• Demand Projections for Auslink Non-Urban Corridors: Methodology and Projections
  
  wp_066_AusLinkDP_FullReport.pdf
  (5.42 MB)

Freight Measurement and Modelling in Australia aims to summarise the existing state of knowledge on freight in Australia and to present the time series data, analysis and sources which underpin the BTRE's long term freight forecasts. Consistently measured time series data are required to model and forecast freight flows. The report describes the methodologies evolved by the BTRE to do this. It also includes the results of modelling and forecasting undertaken using the derived series. Non-bulk freight is projected to increase by 82 per cent in tonne-kilometre terms between 2003 and 2020 (average 3.6 per cent a year).

The expected rate of growth in gross domestic product and reductions in freight rates are the key drivers of this growth as well as a continuing trend to national distribution by manufacturers, wholesalers and importers. With Treasury projecting some fall-off in the long term economic growth going forward, the non-bulk growth rate is slightly lower than in the recent past. Based on past trends, road's share of national non-bulk freight is projected to increase marginally from 74 per cent to 76 per cent, with the rail share declining from 21 per cent to 17 per cent and sea freight making up the balance (with air freight vanishingly small in tonnekilometre terms, albeit not in value).

These mode share projections, however, do not take account of the potential for rejuvenation of rail on north-south routes, in somewhat the same manner as has already occurred on east-west routes. Capital city freight tonne-kilometres are projected to grow by 3.0 per cent a year between 2003 and 2020 (compared with a 1971–2003 average of 5.0 per cent). While heavy vehicles comprise only 4 per cent of the metropolitan traffic stream, growth of this level implies a slight increase in the heavy vehicle proportion (to 4.2 per cent in 2020).

Rail is expected to remain the largest mode in shipping bulk freight (46 per cent share in 2003, 45 per cent in 2020), followed by sea freight (30 per cent and 29 per cent shares respectively). Rail is well suited for transporting to port Australia's large export tonnages in coal, other minerals and grains. Rail freight has fallen in most other bulk commodities.

• Freight Measurement and Modelling in Australia
  
  report_112.pdf
  (7.78 MB)