For cost-benefit analyses (CBA) of public-sector projects, a common misconception is that the discount rate should include a risk premium in consonance with the private-sector practice of doing so. In examining the issue, this report addresses different types of risk separately including downside risk, which arises from optimistic bias in forecasts and pure risk, which is the variation remaining around the mean after removing downside biases.

• Risk in Cost-Benefit Analysis
  
  report_110.pdf
  (1.27 MB)

Skill shortages are a well documented issue both in Australia and overseas, but the problem itself is not well defined. Most of the previously published work has been conducted on a national or industry wide scale. The BTRE approach focused on the relationship between skill shortages and location, using local skill audits, commissioned reports and industry focused studies.

• Skill Shortages in Australia's Regions
  
  wp_068.pdf
  (1.19 MB)

The Greater Sydney Metropolitan Region is one of the fastest growing metropolitan areas of Australia. This project improves our understanding of socio-economic drivers of growth in this region. 54 Statistical Local Areas (SLAs) in the region were analysed, and the study covers the period 1991 to 2001. The paper is accompanied by the Drivers of Economic Growth in the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Region database.

• Drivers of Economic Growth in the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Region
  
  wp_067.pdf
  (7.14 MB)
• Statistical Index
  
  
  wp_067.xls
  (260.5 KB)

The submission commences with a brief general discussion of the economics of road and rail infrastructure and some implications for pricing; examines the relationship between estimates of road infrastructure costs attributable to Australian heavy vehicle operators and charges paid, both at the aggregate level and for particular road corridors; discusses issues in improving the efficiency of both road and rail freight infrastructure pricing, and finally considers the question of charging for freight externalities.

• Submission to the Productivity Commission Road and Rail Freight Infrastructure Pricing Inquiry
  
  cr_001.pdf
  (434.28 KB)

In the last decade, Australia's railways have undergone an ownership, operational and technological revolution. The establishment of national public and private train operators has finally brought seamless rail freight services across the country. There has been a complementary development in track management, with one manager (Australian Rail Track Corporation) rather than five, now controlling most of the interstate track.

The standardisation of the Melbourne-Adelaide railway in 1995 removed the break-of-gauge on the East-West Corridor. This has facilitated the subsequent more than doubling of rail freight task between those cities.

Infrastructure investments and complementary funding of new generation locomotives have enabled train operators to harness train economics of heavier, longer trains, for instance, with Melbourne-Adelaide trains now 50 per cent longer than a decade ago.

These changes are transforming the industry. However, the perception is that the legacy of the separate State-based networks may still draw a long shadow over the performance of the network. This report investigates the extent to which physical, operational and regulatory breaks-of-gauge impede the industry. The report provides guidance to policy makers and industry on those issues.

• Optimising Harmonisation in the Australian Railway Industry
  
  report_114.pdf
  (7.89 MB)

The first edition of the Guidelines (ATC 2004a) was produced by the Guidelines Assessment Methodology Working Group (endorsed by the Standing Committee on Transport). It incorporated a generic framework, with an initial focus on non-urban land transport (road, rail, inter-modal).

In 2005, The Australian Transport Council (ATC) established a Guidelines Implementation Committee (GIC) to review, update and improve the Guidelines in line with learnings and feedback received during their implementation. The ATC also asked the GIC to extend the Guidelines to urban transport.

This second edition of the Guidelines has been produced by the GIC in response to the directive of the ATC. The Guidelines have been restructured to make them more concise, accessible and user-friendly, while maintaining rigour. The Guidelines have also been extended to urban transport.

The restructured Guidelines comprise five documents, with each document focusing on the needs of a particular audience:

• Volume 1: Introduction to the Guidelines and Framework–a brief overview of the direction and content of the Guidelines and Framework.
• Volume 2: Strategic Transport Planning and Development–a detailed description of the Framework.
• Volume 3: Appraisal of Initiatives–a comprehensive guide to appraisal of transport initiatives.
• Volume 4: Urban Transport–supplementary material on urban transport, covering the appraisal of public transport initiatives and urban transport modelling.
• Volume 5: Background Material–contains detailed background material that underpins the methodology outlined in Volume 2 and Volume 3 of the Guidelines.

This analysis is the first in a series of case studies undertaken for the BTRE ex-post road investments evaluation project. The project complements the recent implementation by juristictions of the Australian Transport Council endorsed National Guidelines for Transport System Management in Australia. In particular the project is intended to benefit both future project appraisal and future ex-post evaluation under Auslink and more generally.

• Ex-post economic evaluation of National Highway projects, Case Study 1: Wallaville Bridge
  
  wp_070-1.pdf
  (1.33 MB)

BTRE's ex-post road investments evaluation project involves systematically reviewing after the fact the projected costs and benefits of major investments. The project complements the recent implementation by jurisdictions of the ATC-endorsed National Guidelines for Transport System Management in Australia. In particular, the project is intended to benefit both future project appraisal and future ex-post evaluation under AusLink and more generally. This analysis was one of the case studies undertaken for the BTRE ex-post road investments evaluation project. The case study provided an example of how to undertake an evaluation of a bypass project involving an improved treatment of delay effects at intersections using the Main Roads Western Australia's WARES evaluation software.

• Ex-post economic evaluation of National Highway projects, Case Study 2: Northam Bypass
  
  wp_070-2.pdf
  (666.92 KB)

Paper presented to European Conference of Ministers of Transport "Workshop on Competitive Tendering for Rail Services" held in Paris on 12 January 2006. Paper to be published in forthcoming ECMT Workshop Proceedings. Author: Peter Kain.

• The pitfalls in competitive tendering: addressing the risks revealed by experience in Australia and Britain
  
  sp_002_pittfalls_in_competitve_tendering.pdf
  (1.22 MB)

This economic growth update builds on information paper 54, Focus on regions 3–Taxable Income.

The taxable income database contains small-area data from 1980–81 to 2004–05 on a number of indicators. The main indicator is the amount of taxable income each region earns, the change in which can be used as an indicator of economic growth.

The interactive pdfs accompanying the update contain maps of regional growth, graphs of growth by state and remoteness class, and the methodology for the update.

• Notes on method: the BITRE's taxable income database 2007 update
  
  other_001_InteractiveDATA.pdf
  (118.16 KB)
• Taxable income database
  
  
  other_001_2007database.xls
  (4.7 MB)