BTRE has completed projected greenhouse gas emissions and energy use by the Australian transport sector using two different methods.

• Greenhouse Gas Emissions to 2020: Projected Trends for Australian Transport
  
  is_021.pdf
  (197.59 KB)

This paper presents the results of a Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics (BTRE) study involving a general equilibrium modelling (or 'top-down') approach to deriving projections of greenhouse emissions from the Australian transport sector.

• Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: A Macro Modelling Approach
  
  wp_052.pdf
  (1.44 MB)

This paper looks at differing investment and growth patterns of irrigation dependent regions along the course of the Murray River. It derives estimates of investment in irrigated agriculture and in the associated manufacturing industries in the regions and then identifies the key underlying causes of regional differences.

• Working Paper 58: Investment Trends in the Lower Murray-Darling Basin
  
  wp_058.pdf
  (2.38 MB)

In July 2003 the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, jointly with BTRE and the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, were asked to investigate the appropriateness of maintaining an objective that biofuels, produced in Australia from renewable resources, contribute at least 350 ML to the total fuel supply by 2010. The joint study was initiated on 5 August 2003 with a final report required to be delivered on 19 December 2003. "Appropriateness" was to be considered in terms of net environmental benefits, net economic benefits, net regional benefits and industry viability. In turn, industry viability was to take into account announced reforms to fuel tax arrangements, including the phase out of effective excise relief.

• Appropriateness of a 350 Million Litre Biofuels Target
  
  cr_001.pdf
  (3.41 MB)

There is an increasing body of evidence that the earth's climate is changing with some of the changes attributable to human activities. Climate change can have direct and indirect impacts on road infrastructure.

• Impact of climate change on road infrastructure
  
  cr_001_climate_change.pdf
  (5.94 MB)

This report presents the results of a Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics (BTRE) study to update base case projections of greenhouse gas emissions from the Australian transport sector. This work updates previous projections provided to the Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO) in July 2003 as an unpublished consultancy report–Aggregate Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: Base Case Projections (Bottom-Up Approach) to 2020.

• Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Australian Transport: Base Case Projections to 2020
  
  cr_002_BTRE_AGO_05.pdf
  (6.44 MB)

The possibility of sustained high world oil prices has fueled concern over long-term supply. The question is particularly relevant for transport as a major user of oil with few viable alternatives. Internationally, there is a vigorous debate over the ability of this supply to satisfy ever-increasing demand, particularly with the growth in large fast-growth countries such as China and India. The debate can be complicated and, at times, highly emotional. The aim of this Working Paper is to provide an objective summary and analysis of the main issues in the debate.

• Is the World Running Out of Oil? A Review of the Debate
  
  wp_061.pdf
  (6.28 MB)

For cost-benefit analyses (CBA) of public-sector projects, a common misconception is that the discount rate should include a risk premium in consonance with the private-sector practice of doing so. In examining the issue, this report addresses different types of risk separately including downside risk, which arises from optimistic bias in forecasts and pure risk, which is the variation remaining around the mean after removing downside biases.

• Risk in Cost-Benefit Analysis
  
  report_110.pdf
  (1.27 MB)

This report is part of a series of BTRE research on the socioeconomic costs of transport impacts and focuses on the health impact costs of motor vehicle emissions in Australian capital cities.

• Health Impacts of Transport Emissions in Australia: Economic Costs
  
  wp_063.pdf
  (3.19 MB)

The Australian Government's AusLink initiative represents a new approach to planning and funding Australia's land transport infrastructure. Under AusLink the Australian Government will fund projects that have the greatest contribution to Australia's long-term economic prosperity, irrespective of the transport mode. AusLink will involve an integrated approach to planning, with three complementary levels of analysis:

1. strategic network assessment;
2. corridor assessments and;
3. detailed project assessments.

Projections of future transport demand are a critical input into these assessments. In order to undertake more informed strategic network assessments, the BTRE has developed two models for projecting future non-urban passenger and freight transport demand: OZPASS non-urban passenger travel forecasting model; and FreightSim inter-regional freight forecasting model. This paper outlines the structure of these models and demonstrates their application to projecting future passenger and freight movements across the non-urban sections of the AusLink National Network. Readers should note that the road traffic projections presented in this paper are based on passenger travel and freight movement data for 1999 and road traffic data for various years between 1993 and 1996. These data sets were the most up-to-date data available to the BTRE when the analysis was undertaken. The BTRE intends to update these projections, using more current passenger and freight movements data, more recent regional population estimates and, in cooperation with the States and Territories, more recent road traffic data, when this data becomes available.

• Demand Projections for Auslink Non-Urban Corridors: Methodology and Projections
  
  wp_066_AusLinkDP_FullReport.pdf
  (5.42 MB)