This report presents the results of a Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics (BTRE) study to update base case projections of greenhouse gas emissions from the Australian transport sector. This work updates previous projections provided to the Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO) in July 2003 as an unpublished consultancy report–Aggregate Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: Base Case Projections (Bottom-Up Approach) to 2020.

• Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Australian Transport: Base Case Projections to 2020
  
  cr_002_BTRE_AGO_05.pdf
  (6.44 MB)

The possibility of sustained high world oil prices has fueled concern over long-term supply. The question is particularly relevant for transport as a major user of oil with few viable alternatives. Internationally, there is a vigorous debate over the ability of this supply to satisfy ever-increasing demand, particularly with the growth in large fast-growth countries such as China and India. The debate can be complicated and, at times, highly emotional. The aim of this Working Paper is to provide an objective summary and analysis of the main issues in the debate.

• Is the World Running Out of Oil? A Review of the Debate
  
  wp_061.pdf
  (6.28 MB)

For cost-benefit analyses (CBA) of public-sector projects, a common misconception is that the discount rate should include a risk premium in consonance with the private-sector practice of doing so. In examining the issue, this report addresses different types of risk separately including downside risk, which arises from optimistic bias in forecasts and pure risk, which is the variation remaining around the mean after removing downside biases.

• Risk in Cost-Benefit Analysis
  
  report_110.pdf
  (1.27 MB)

This report is part of a series of BTRE research on the socioeconomic costs of transport impacts and focuses on the health impact costs of motor vehicle emissions in Australian capital cities.

• Health Impacts of Transport Emissions in Australia: Economic Costs
  
  wp_063.pdf
  (3.19 MB)

The Australian Government's AusLink initiative represents a new approach to planning and funding Australia's land transport infrastructure. Under AusLink the Australian Government will fund projects that have the greatest contribution to Australia's long-term economic prosperity, irrespective of the transport mode. AusLink will involve an integrated approach to planning, with three complementary levels of analysis:

1. strategic network assessment;
2. corridor assessments and;
3. detailed project assessments.

Projections of future transport demand are a critical input into these assessments. In order to undertake more informed strategic network assessments, the BTRE has developed two models for projecting future non-urban passenger and freight transport demand: OZPASS non-urban passenger travel forecasting model; and FreightSim inter-regional freight forecasting model. This paper outlines the structure of these models and demonstrates their application to projecting future passenger and freight movements across the non-urban sections of the AusLink National Network. Readers should note that the road traffic projections presented in this paper are based on passenger travel and freight movement data for 1999 and road traffic data for various years between 1993 and 1996. These data sets were the most up-to-date data available to the BTRE when the analysis was undertaken. The BTRE intends to update these projections, using more current passenger and freight movements data, more recent regional population estimates and, in cooperation with the States and Territories, more recent road traffic data, when this data becomes available.

• Demand Projections for Auslink Non-Urban Corridors: Methodology and Projections
  
  wp_066_AusLinkDP_FullReport.pdf
  (5.42 MB)

The first edition of the Guidelines (ATC 2004a) was produced by the Guidelines Assessment Methodology Working Group (endorsed by the Standing Committee on Transport). It incorporated a generic framework, with an initial focus on non-urban land transport (road, rail, inter-modal).

In 2005, The Australian Transport Council (ATC) established a Guidelines Implementation Committee (GIC) to review, update and improve the Guidelines in line with learnings and feedback received during their implementation. The ATC also asked the GIC to extend the Guidelines to urban transport.

This second edition of the Guidelines has been produced by the GIC in response to the directive of the ATC. The Guidelines have been restructured to make them more concise, accessible and user-friendly, while maintaining rigour. The Guidelines have also been extended to urban transport.

The restructured Guidelines comprise five documents, with each document focusing on the needs of a particular audience:

• Volume 1: Introduction to the Guidelines and Framework–a brief overview of the direction and content of the Guidelines and Framework.
• Volume 2: Strategic Transport Planning and Development–a detailed description of the Framework.
• Volume 3: Appraisal of Initiatives–a comprehensive guide to appraisal of transport initiatives.
• Volume 4: Urban Transport–supplementary material on urban transport, covering the appraisal of public transport initiatives and urban transport modelling.
• Volume 5: Background Material–contains detailed background material that underpins the methodology outlined in Volume 2 and Volume 3 of the Guidelines.

Keynote Speaker: Prof. Dr. Rothengatter is an internationally recognised authority on the application of transport theory to policymaking. He is head of the Institute of Economic Policy Research and the Unit of Transport and Communication at the University of Karlsruhe, Germany.

To be included on the 2008 Colloquium mailing list, please email btre.colloquium@dotars.gov.au

• BTRE 2007 Transport Colloquium–Program
  
  other_001_colloquium07.pdf
  (1.06 MB)

In order to maximise the value of urban transport modelling as a tool for improving urban congestion interventions, a National Workshop on Urban Transport Modelling was held in Canberra on 5 March 2008. It was co-convened by the Urban Congestion Management Working Group and the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics.The workshop brought together nearly 60 participants, including urban transport modellers, decision-makers, research bodies and transport and planning agencies.

The initiative to organise a national workshop on urban transport modelling derives from COAG's consideration of the Urban Congestion Review in April 2007. COAG tasked the Australian Transport Council of Ministers (ATC) with establishing arrangements to improve urban congestion data, modelling and performance information for decision-making and to report back to COAG by June 2008.ATC subsequently asked the Standing Committee on Transport (SCOT), through the SCOT Urban Congestion Management Working Group, to progress this agenda. The proposal for a national urban transport modelling workshop was one ofa small number of actions endorsed by SCOT to assist in developing improving information for urban congestion decision-making.

Presentations

The morning consisted of a series of papers presented by experts in six key urban congestion management intervention areas. Keynote papers were also given by the Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government Secretary, Michael Taylor AO, and Professor David Hensher. The afternoon consisted of a series of small group workshops to propose a number of possible future action areas.

Presentations in the morning sessions were as follows:

• Professor David Hensher, Keynote Address, Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies, Faculty of Economics and Business, The University of Sydney
• Rod Tudge, Traffic Management and Microsimulation, Traffic and Transport Modelling, Roads and Traffic Authority, New South Wales
• Lindsay Oxlad, Road Pricing, Road Transport Policy and Investment, Department for Transport, Energy and Infrastructure, South Australia
• Professor Graham Currie, Public Transport, Public Transport, Civil Engineering, Monash University
• Associate Professor Geoff Rose, Passenger Travel Demand Management, Institute of Transport Studies, Civil Engineering, Monash University
• Fotios Spiridonos, Freight and Business Sector Transport and Victoria's Freight Movement Model (VicFMM), Transport Modelling and Analysis Policy, Intergovernmental Relations Division, Department of Infrastructure, Victoria
• Frank Milthorpe, Integrated Transport and Land Use, Transport Model Development, Transport Data Centre, Ministry of Transport, New South Wales

Please see below for links to presentation slides and photos of the day.

Outcomes

The workshop recognised that modelling is capable of informing urban congestion management interventions but that currently policy and modelling are not well coordinated. Improvements need to be made for policy makers and modellers to work collaboratively in framing appropriate urban congestion management questions. The socio-economic impact of urban congestion interventions, for example, is an area which needs to be better modelled and understood.

The following five key areas summarise the proposed areas which received most support for further action:

1. Time of travel and behaviour shifts (i.e. how people make travel decisions) are not adequately modelled: New models need to be developed for peak spreading/time of day choice. Current models often exaggerate modal shift, compared to changing time of travel.
2. Socio-economic impacts of various interventions are not modelled to an adequate level: For example the distributional impacts of road pricing on different socio-economic groups; willingness to pay; ability to pay and access to alternatives, need to be captured.
3. Freight/Light Commercial Vehicles: A cost-effective way of getting data for freight and business sector transport modelling needs to be found. The establishment of a Freight Movement Working Group to develop and implement a better data framework for freight and business sector transport was recommended.
4. Reliability modelling: Better modelling is needed to assess the role reliability plays in mode choice and how reliability affects patronage, compared to other aspects of travel choice.
5. Collaboration to improve methodologies: There has been a lack of communication and collaboration between agencies, academics and decision makers and this makes maximising the uses of modelling for national urban congestion strategy difficult. Informal networks need to be strengthened and 'best Australian practice' needs to be documented. A clearing house for modelling resources needs to be established.

• David Hensher
  
  
  other_003_01_DHensher.ppt
  (1.61 MB)
• Rod Tudge
  
  
  other_003_02_RTudge.ppt
  (650 KB)
• Graham Currie
  
  
  other_003_04_GCurrie.ppt
  (3.85 MB)
• Geoff Rose
  
  
  other_003_05_GRose.ppt
  (362 KB)
• Fotios Spiridonos
  
  
  other_003_06_FSpiridonos.ppt
  (2.45 MB)
• Frank Milthorpe
  
  
  other_003_07_FMilthorpe_SCOT.ppt
  (15.8 MB)
• Photos from the workshop
  
  other_003_Workshop_Photos.pdf
  (911.24 KB)

This working paper models a base case scenario for emissions projections between 2007 and 2020, assuming no further abatement measures are taken. The underlying data has been used in recent reports prepared by the Department of Climate Change and the Treasury.

• Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: Projections to 2020
  
  wp_073.pdf
  (9.57 MB)