This Paper examines the demand for air travel in Australia and forecasts domestic passenger and freight aviation demand to the end of the century at five-year intervals. The analysis begins by reviewing recent trends in patronage and air fares. It then identifies other major factors affecting demand as background for the empirical analysis. The study period for the empirical analysis covers the past eight years, 1977 to 1984, using quarterly data. The models provide, among other things, estimates of price and income elasticities of demand (or demand responses) for air travel in Australia. Finally, the Paper presents forecast growth rates for air travel subject to different future growth scenarios to the year 2000.

• Demand for Australian Domestic Aviation Services: Forecasts by Market Segment
  
  op_079.pdf
  (5.51 MB)

The discussion of domestic aviation issues in Australia has historically focused on the passenger market. This reflects the dominance of passenger transport in the operations of the domestic airlines and the relatively small proportion of domestic cargo that is carried by air. Despite this emphasis on passenger operations, the Commonwealth Government has implemented regulations specifically directed at air cargo and the major airlines have evolved separate strategies for cargo traffic in recent years. Cargo is now an important element of Australia's domestic aviation industry and is a significant source of income for several carriers. This Paper presents the findings of a BTE study of the domestic air cargo industry in Australia.

• Domestic Air Cargo Industry in Australia
  
  op_087.pdf
  (5.59 MB)

There has not been a comprehensive study of trends and changes in the institutional and commercial parameters which affect Australia's international aviation industry since the International Civil Aviation Policy review of 1978. The aim of the work reported in this Paper was to document the significant developments in international aviation on both a global scale and for Australian routes in particular. The historical trends in supply of and demand for international air passenger services to and from Australia are examined and the information used to forecast passenger numbers to the year 2000 for various markets.

• Trends and Prospects for Australian International Air Transport
  
  op_088.pdf
  (7.31 MB)

Forecasts for both domestic and international aircraft movements are generated for the years 1990, 1995 and 2000. From these forecasts growth rates in aircraft traffic have been calculated for the major international airports and for the major sectors in the Australian domestic aviation network. The time series model produces annual aircraft movements whereas the simulation model produces movements for a standard business day divided into morning, midday and evening periods.

• Forecasting Aircraft Movements at Major Australian Airports
  
  op_092.pdf
  (5.42 MB)

This Information Paper details the costs of aviation accidents in Australia for 1988. Costs have been grouped into four broad categories: lost productivity; aircraft damage; insurance administration and legal; and other.

• Costs of Aviation Accidents in Australia–1988
  
  is_003.pdf
  (211.51 KB)

BTCE undertook this study to identify and analyse the factors which have influenced the supply and demand for air services on the Australia-Japan route and to examine the future prospects for the route. The study examined the factors which influence the Japanese overseas travel market, such as government policies, the supply of aviation infrastructure, the structure of the Japanese tour consolidation industry and the conduct of the airlines operating on the route. It also examined how the prices of holiday packages to Australia compared with similar packages to competing destinations.

• The Japan–Australia Air Route
  
  wp_005.pdf
  (6.72 MB)

Several important aviation reform initiatives have been taken in the past five years. These include the economic deregulation of interstate services, the establishment of the Federal Airports Corporation and the Civil Aviation Authority as statutory authorities, multiple designation of Australia's international air services, the start of negotiations with New Zealand on a single trans-Tasman aviation market, and the merger and privatisation of Qantas and Australian Airlines.

• Quality of Service in Australian Passenger Aviation
  
  report_080.pdf
  (4.15 MB)

This report is the fifth of a series of publications monitoring the progress of aviation reforms which the Bureau of Transport and Communications Economics produced from 1989. Earlier reports concentrated on domestic airline deregulation, but clearly the distinction between domestic and international has now blurred.

• The Progress of Aviation Reform
  
  report_081.pdf
  (17.57 MB)

This report analyses the historical trends and current issues facing the international aviation industry and comments on possible future developments in international aviation.

• International Aviation: Trends and Issues
  
  report_086.pdf
  (42.77 MB)

This Information Paper details the costs of aviation accidents in Australia for 1993. Costs have been grouped into six broad categories: lost earnings of victims; family and community losses; pain and suffering; aircraft damage and property loss; insurance administration; and other.

• Costs of Aviation Accidents in Australia–1993
  
  is_005.pdf
  (567.66 KB)