Paper presented by David Gargett, Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics.

• Predicting Traffic Growth in Australian Cities
  
  sp_001_Predicting_Traffic_Growth.pdf
  (1.64 MB)

Paper presented by David Gargett, Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics & John Gafney, VicRoads Melbourne.

• Traffic Growth in Australian Cities: Causes, Prevention and Cure
  
  sp_002_Traffic_Growth_in_Australian_Cities.pdf
  (1.71 MB)

This paper presents the results of a desk study of the road freight industry. The aim of the study is to update our knowledge of the Australian freight industry by bringing together and analysing information that is currently available. The study is intended as a 'building block' for a future larger survey-based study of the road freight and logistics industries. It is now 20 years since comprehensive studies of the road freight industry were undertaken, by the Bureau of Transport Economics and the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

• An Overview of the Australian Road Freight Transport Industry
  
  wp_060.pdf
  (1.06 MB)

There is an increasing body of evidence that the earth's climate is changing with some of the changes attributable to human activities. Climate change can have direct and indirect impacts on road infrastructure.

• Impact of climate change on road infrastructure
  
  cr_001_climate_change.pdf
  (5.94 MB)

This paper presents the results of applying a policy model to simulate the effects on greenhouse gas emissions from trucking in Sydney of various abatement scenarios. These include vehicle efficiency scenarios, traffic efficiency scenarios and alternative infrastructure and land use scenarios. The model developed is quite comprehensive. It includes the effects of the interaction of trucks with car traffic in the city. And it extends the results, not only to the recognised greenhouse gases, but also to the effect of the scenarios on pollutant emissions from road transport and thus on pollution in the Sydney airshed. The research reported on here shows that, using the model developed, answers can be given as to detailed effects of transport policy measures on emissions in Sydney. Just as importantly, it points to methods that can be used to build such a model in other cities. The series of five technical papers describing the construction and make-up of the model and its capabilities is available on the CSIRO website (www.energytransformed.csiro.au). CSIRO was the co-ordinator of the research, with Parsons Brinckerhoff and the Transport Systems Centre of the University of South Australia contributing components. CSIRO prepared this report. The Transport and Population Data Centre of the NSW Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources provided the datasets of traffic and now owns the model framework. All of the research was made possible by a grant from the Australian Greenhouse Office.

• Modelling Responses of Urban Freight Patterns to Greenhouse Gas Abatement Scenarios
  
  wp_062.pdf
  (2.37 MB)

Australian Transport Statistics provides an easy introduction to a diverse range of transport statistics. Topics include employment, GDP, passenger and freight movements, trade, funding, motor vehicles, fatalities and estimated greenhouse gas emissions attributed to the transport industry. Various international comparisons are included and details provided for the road,rail, marine and aviation sectors. Data are gathered from various sources both within the Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics and external organisations.

• Australian Transport Statistics–June 2005
  
  stats_001.pdf
  (815.06 KB)

Staff paper given by Dr Mark Harvey to the 28th Australasian Transport Research Forum, 28–30 September 2005, Sofitel Wentworth Hotel, Sydney.

• The Economic Efficiency of Lane Differentiation Policies
  
  sp_003_Economic_Efficiency_of_Lane_Differentiation_policies.pdf
  (855.26 KB)

Staff paper given by Lyn Martin to the 28th Australasian Transport Research Forum, 28–30 September 2005, Sofitel Wentworth Hotel, Sydney.

• External Accident Costs of Motor Vehicles Revisited
  
  sp_002_External_Accident_Costs_of_Motor_Vehicles_Revisited.pdf
  (822.47 KB)

The Australian Government's AusLink initiative represents a new approach to planning and funding Australia's land transport infrastructure. Under AusLink the Australian Government will fund projects that have the greatest contribution to Australia's long-term economic prosperity, irrespective of the transport mode. AusLink will involve an integrated approach to planning, with three complementary levels of analysis:

1. strategic network assessment;
2. corridor assessments and;
3. detailed project assessments.

Projections of future transport demand are a critical input into these assessments. In order to undertake more informed strategic network assessments, the BTRE has developed two models for projecting future non-urban passenger and freight transport demand: OZPASS non-urban passenger travel forecasting model; and FreightSim inter-regional freight forecasting model. This paper outlines the structure of these models and demonstrates their application to projecting future passenger and freight movements across the non-urban sections of the AusLink National Network. Readers should note that the road traffic projections presented in this paper are based on passenger travel and freight movement data for 1999 and road traffic data for various years between 1993 and 1996. These data sets were the most up-to-date data available to the BTRE when the analysis was undertaken. The BTRE intends to update these projections, using more current passenger and freight movements data, more recent regional population estimates and, in cooperation with the States and Territories, more recent road traffic data, when this data becomes available.

• Demand Projections for Auslink Non-Urban Corridors: Methodology and Projections
  
  wp_066_AusLinkDP_FullReport.pdf
  (5.42 MB)

This report summarises the existing knowledge of freight in Australia and presents the time series data, analysis and sources which underpin the BTRE's long-term freight forecasts. Consistently measured time series data are required to model and forecast freight flows. The report describes the methodologies evolved by the BTRE to do this. It includes the results of modelling and forecasting undertaken using the derived series. Non-bulk freight is projected to increase by 82% in tonne-kilometre terms between 2003 and 2020 (average 3.6% per year).

The expected rate of growth in gross domestic product and reductions in freight rates are the key drivers of this growth as well as a continuing trend to national distribution by manufacturers, wholesalers and importers. With Treasury projecting some fall-off in the long-term economic growth, the non-bulk growth rate is slightly lower than in the recent past. Based on past trends, road's share of national non-bulk freight is projected to increase marginally from 74% to 76%, with the rail share declining from 21% to 17% and sea freight making up the balance (with air freight vanishingly small in tonne-kilometre terms, albeit not in value).

These mode share projections do not take account of the potential for rejuvenation of rail on north-south routes, in somewhat the same manner as has already occurred on east-west routes. Capital city freight tonne-kilometres are projected to grow by 3.0% a year between 2003 and 2020 (compared with a 1971–2003 average of 5.0%). While heavy vehicles comprise only 4% of the metropolitan traffic stream, growth of this level implies a slight increase in the heavy vehicle proportion (to 4.2% in 2020).

Rail is expected to remain the largest mode in shipping bulk freight (46% share in 2003, 45% in 2020), followed by sea freight (30% and 29% shares respectively). Rail is well suited for transporting Australia's large export tonnages in coal, other minerals and grains to port. Rail freight has fallen in most other bulk commodities.