The Bureau of Transport Economics (BTE) has developed and applied methods for forecasting light vehicle traffic on the nation's roads. This paper describes the methods and provides estimates and projections of light vehicle traffic within major Australian cities and on Australia's principal non-urban highways. A simple model was developed to predict the growth of total light vehicle traffic in each of Australia's major cities. When linked to congestion models, the BTE results presage a looming congestion problem in our cities. The most significant contribution of the Working Paper is the development of new models for long-term forecasting of light vehicle traffic on Australia's non-urban highways. As far as the BTE is aware, its methodology has not previously been used in Australian studies. Data from a number of different sources have been utilised to estimate interregional passenger travel by domestic residents and light vehicle highway traffic. The traffic projections indicate that growth in traffic volumes on the National Highway system will be greatest on those sections linking the major capitals; Adelaide Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane and regional centres in between.

• Forecasting Light Vehicle Traffic
  
  wp_038.pdf
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Transport models have been used for several decades now, both for research, and as an analytical tool to assist planners and decision-makers. As the complexity of traffic and environmental problems in our cities has increased, policy makers have come to depend on models to an even greater extent. The immense increase in available computing power over the last decade has abetted this dependence. Customised software has simplified even the most complex mathematics to such an extent that modelling is no longer the preserve of a select few 'rocket scientist'. If asked, however, many policy analysts and decision-makers would probably admit to a lack of understanding of the models on the results of which they rely. Billions of dollars in resources are expended annually in Australia despite a lack of full understanding of the basis on which decisions are made. To assist both researchers and decision-makers, Dr William (Weiguo) Lu has dissected the major models that have been used to analyse urban transport tasks. This Working Paper therefore represents something of a 'scene-setter' for further work. While a purely non-technical approach is not feasible, he has sought to provide an intuitive exposition of the basic concepts involved, relying on a minimum of mathematical expression.

• Competitive Neutrality Between Road and Rail
  
  wp_040.pdf
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Increasingly in Australia, trucking is an essential feature of economic activity, with road being the only mode possible for much freight traffic (eg in cities), and with rail tending to be less competitive than road on many intercity links.

• Trends in Trucks and Traffic
  
  is_015.pdf
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Urban car travel in Australia is expected to continue to grow appreciably over the next 20 years (by close to 30 per cent) though at a somewhat slower rate of growth than for the last few decades.

During the 1990s around 2000 people died per year and over 20 000 sustained serious injuries on Australian roads per year. When the human cost is considered in combination with associated property damage and the costs of the infrastructure required to deal with road crashes, it is clear that society bears a huge overall cost. Determining the magnitude of this cost and its components provides a better understanding of the benefits of activities that reduce the incidence and severity of road crashes. 

Local roads are considered by regional communities to be a major contributor to their prosperity and social amenity. This report presents the first detailed picture of local road spending at the regional level. Recently, local roads have attracted considerable attention and debate at the national level. However, we simply do not have the detailed statistics and analyses required to understand the adequacy of local road spending nationally. Because there is no central source of data on regional roads, the writing of this report required the collection of financial data from no less than sixteen sources across Australia. The BTE understands that the Australian Bureau of Statistics has work in hand to upgrade regional statistics. Consequently our understanding of local road finances should improve over the next few years.

• Spending on Local Roads
  
  wp_044.pdf
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The Federal Government has, since 1990–91, allocated substantial resources through its Black Spot Program to reduce the number and severity of crashes at black spot locations as part of its overall road safety strategy. Bureau of Transport and Communications Economics (BTCE) Report 90 Evaluation of the Black Spot Program published in 1995 evaluated the program that operated from 1990–91 to 1992–93 inclusive.

• The Black Spot Program 1996–2002: An Evaluation of the First Three Years
  
  report_104.pdf
  (4.45 MB)

BTRE has examined trends in the fuel consumption of new passenger vehicles. The overall trend in fuel consumption was down during the 1980s. However during the 1990s, a more gradual reduction in the fuel consumption of cars, coupled with increasing sales of 4-wheel-drive vehicles, saw fuel consumption for new passenger vehicles as a whole stabilise.

• Fuel Consumption by New Passenger Vehicles in Australia
  
  is_018.pdf
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This report presents the results of a BTRE study to estimate likely future levels of noxious pollutant emissions from motor vehicles in Australian metropolitan areas.

Over the last few years, the Commonwealth has devoted considerable resources to the task of helping local government authorities maintain and upgrade their road systems. The major initiative was an extra $1.2 billion in road funding paid directly to councils through the Roads to Recovery programme but federal authorities have also been directed to work with their local government counterparts to improve road policies and practices. The Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics' main contribution to this initiative has been to carry out two research projects. A regional analysis of council road finances was published last year in BTRE Working Paper 44, Spending on Local Roads, and this report presents a complementary study of State and Territory spending on roads including the assistance they provide to local government. It also identifies the roads for which State and council authorities are respectively responsible in each jurisdiction. The BTRE would like to thank State, Territory and Local Government organisations that assisted in the preparation of this report by providing information or advice on road finances. The data presented in this report is based on the responses provided by the States and Territories to the BTRE's Survey of State Government Spending on Roads. The BTRE has made every effort to ensure the figures are internally consistent and has relied on the State and Territories to ensure the accuracy of the data.

• State Spending on Roads
  
  wp_056.pdf
  (2.26 MB)