Public debate on whether the road or the rail sector is relatively more disadvantaged in terms of competition tends naturally to be driven by the specific interests of the protagonists. The focus of the debate reflects changing issues as new, alleged discrepancies are discovered. It has therefore ranged from taxes paid, the extent of charges levied, and the degree of direct or indirect financial assistance provided by governments, and the fairness of increasing mass limits for heavy road vehicles. It is thus not surprising that the debate continues, and that it is not particularly fruitful or illuminating. The BTCE has adopted a different approach. Given the intensity of the debate and the fact that it has continued for so long, it was surprising that little or no systematic information exists on taxes and charges in the transport sector. The BTCE's first step was therefore to compile the lists presented in the appendixes (to which many public and private organisations and individuals generously contributed). Recognising that all four modes (it was not possible to include pipelines) are substitutes to some extent, the list is not limited to road and rail. Most importantly, the summary matrix in table 1 (liftout) and the underlying analytical approach reflect marginal cost principles in the hope that this methodology will assist objective comparisons between modes, as well as the formulation of policy options in any consideration of general taxation reform.

• Taxes and Charges in Australian Transport: A Transmodal Overview
  
  wp_034.pdf
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Using the Bureau of Transport and Communications Economics' Road Infrastructure Assessment Model (RIAM), the Roads 2020 study makes forecasts at a strategic level of expenditure needs for investment and maintenance between 1998 and 2005 and between 2005 and 2020. It also indicates the locations and types of these expenditures. The forecasts cover non-urban roads and bridges which are either part of the National Highway System or are considered to be of national significance by the States and Territories. Expenditures predicted are upgrading road capacity (widening, adding lanes), town bypasses, maintenance, and bridge replacement. Some types of investment have been omitted because of data deficiencies or modelling difficulties. The exclusions are urban roads, flood mitigation projects, major realignment projects and widening roads used by road trains for safety reasons. Investments justified on social or equity grounds are also excluded. Traffic levels were forecast using population projections and origin-destination data. Total forecast expenditure needs for the National Highway System for the coming 22 year period have been estimated at $16.8 billion of which the backlog comprises $2.6 billion.

• Roads 2020
  
  wp_035.pdf
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The Bureau of Transport Economics (BTE) has developed and applied methods for forecasting light vehicle traffic on the nation's roads. This paper describes the methods and provides estimates and projections of light vehicle traffic within major Australian cities and on Australia's principal non-urban highways. A simple model was developed to predict the growth of total light vehicle traffic in each of Australia's major cities. When linked to congestion models, the BTE results presage a looming congestion problem in our cities. The most significant contribution of the Working Paper is the development of new models for long-term forecasting of light vehicle traffic on Australia's non-urban highways. As far as the BTE is aware, its methodology has not previously been used in Australian studies. Data from a number of different sources have been utilised to estimate interregional passenger travel by domestic residents and light vehicle highway traffic. The traffic projections indicate that growth in traffic volumes on the National Highway system will be greatest on those sections linking the major capitals; Adelaide Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane and regional centres in between.

• Forecasting Light Vehicle Traffic
  
  wp_038.pdf
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Transport models have been used for several decades now, both for research, and as an analytical tool to assist planners and decision-makers. As the complexity of traffic and environmental problems in our cities has increased, policy makers have come to depend on models to an even greater extent. The immense increase in available computing power over the last decade has abetted this dependence. Customised software has simplified even the most complex mathematics to such an extent that modelling is no longer the preserve of a select few 'rocket scientist'. If asked, however, many policy analysts and decision-makers would probably admit to a lack of understanding of the models on the results of which they rely. Billions of dollars in resources are expended annually in Australia despite a lack of full understanding of the basis on which decisions are made. To assist both researchers and decision-makers, Dr William (Weiguo) Lu has dissected the major models that have been used to analyse urban transport tasks. This Working Paper therefore represents something of a 'scene-setter' for further work. While a purely non-technical approach is not feasible, he has sought to provide an intuitive exposition of the basic concepts involved, relying on a minimum of mathematical expression.

• Competitive Neutrality Between Road and Rail
  
  wp_040.pdf
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Increasingly in Australia, trucking is an essential feature of economic activity, with road being the only mode possible for much freight traffic (eg in cities), and with rail tending to be less competitive than road on many intercity links.

• Trends in Trucks and Traffic
  
  is_015.pdf
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Urban car travel in Australia is expected to continue to grow appreciably over the next 20 years (by close to 30 per cent) though at a somewhat slower rate of growth than for the last few decades.

• Urban Congestion: the Implications for Greenhouse Gas Emissions
  
  is_016.pdf
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During the 1990s, around 2000 people per year died and over 20 000 per year sustained serious injuries on Australian roads. When the human cost is considered in combination with associated property damage and the costs of the infrastructure required to deal with road crashes, it is clear that society bears a huge overall cost. Determining the magnitude of this cost and its components provides a better understanding of the benefits of activities that reduce the incidence and severity of road crashes.

• Road Crash Costs in Australia
  
  report_102.pdf
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Local roads are considered by regional communities to be a major contributor to their prosperity and social amenity. This report presents the first detailed picture of local road spending at the regional level. Recently, local roads have attracted considerable attention and debate at the national level. However, we simply do not have the detailed statistics and analyses required to understand the adequacy of local road spending nationally. Because there is no central source of data on regional roads, the writing of this report required the collection of financial data from no less than sixteen sources across Australia. The BTE understands that the Australian Bureau of Statistics has work in hand to upgrade regional statistics. Consequently our understanding of local road finances should improve over the next few years.

• Spending on Local Roads
  
  wp_044.pdf
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The Federal Government has, since 1990–91, allocated substantial resources through its Black Spot Program to reduce the number and severity of crashes at black spot locations as part of its overall road safety strategy. Bureau of Transport and Communications Economics (BTCE) Report 90 Evaluation of the Black Spot Program published in 1995 evaluated the program that operated from 1990–91 to 1992–93 inclusive.

• The Black Spot Program 1996–2002: An Evaluation of the First Three Years
  
  report_104.pdf
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BTRE has examined trends in the fuel consumption of new passenger vehicles. The overall trend in fuel consumption was down during the 1980s. However during the 1990s, a more gradual reduction in the fuel consumption of cars, coupled with increasing sales of 4-wheel-drive vehicles, saw fuel consumption for new passenger vehicles as a whole stabilise.

• Fuel Consumption by New Passenger Vehicles in Australia
  
  is_018.pdf
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