This report presents the results of a BTRE study to update base case (or 'business-as-usual') projections of greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector. The work was undertaken on behalf of the Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO).

The work updates previous Bureau projections of transport sector greenhouse gas emissions published in Bureau of Transport and Communications Economics (BTCE) Report 88 (Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: Long-term projections) and BTCE Report 94 (Transport and Greenhouse: Costs and options for reducing emissions).

• Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Transport: Australian Trends to 2020
  
  report_107.pdf
  (1.29 MB)

BTRE has completed projected greenhouse gas emissions and energy use by the Australian transport sector using two different methods.

• Greenhouse Gas Emissions to 2020: Projected Trends for Australian Transport
  
  is_021.pdf
  (197.59 KB)

This paper presents the results of a Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics (BTRE) study involving a general equilibrium modelling (or 'top-down') approach to deriving projections of greenhouse emissions from the Australian transport sector.

• Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: A Macro Modelling Approach
  
  wp_052.pdf
  (1.44 MB)

This report presents the results of a BTRE study to estimate likely future levels of noxious pollutant emissions from motor vehicles in Australian metropolitan areas.

• Urban Pollutant Emissions from Motor Vehicles: Australian Trends to 2020
  
  cr_002.pdf
  (1.68 MB)

In July 2003 the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, jointly with BTRE and the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, were asked to investigate the appropriateness of maintaining an objective that biofuels, produced in Australia from renewable resources, contribute at least 350 ML to the total fuel supply by 2010. The joint study was initiated on 5 August 2003 with a final report required to be delivered on 19 December 2003. "Appropriateness" was to be considered in terms of net environmental benefits, net economic benefits, net regional benefits and industry viability. In turn, industry viability was to take into account announced reforms to fuel tax arrangements, including the phase out of effective excise relief.

• Appropriateness of a 350 Million Litre Biofuels Target
  
  cr_001.pdf
  (3.41 MB)

There is an increasing body of evidence that the earth's climate is changing with some of the changes attributable to human activities. Climate change can have direct and indirect impacts on road infrastructure.

• Impact of climate change on road infrastructure
  
  cr_001_climate_change.pdf
  (5.94 MB)

This paper presents the results of applying a policy model to simulate the effects on greenhouse gas emissions from trucking in Sydney of various abatement scenarios. These include vehicle efficiency scenarios, traffic efficiency scenarios and alternative infrastructure and land use scenarios. The model developed is quite comprehensive. It includes the effects of the interaction of trucks with car traffic in the city. And it extends the results, not only to the recognised greenhouse gases, but also to the effect of the scenarios on pollutant emissions from road transport and thus on pollution in the Sydney airshed. The research reported on here shows that, using the model developed, answers can be given as to detailed effects of transport policy measures on emissions in Sydney. Just as importantly, it points to methods that can be used to build such a model in other cities. The series of five technical papers describing the construction and make-up of the model and its capabilities is available on the CSIRO website (www.energytransformed.csiro.au). CSIRO was the co-ordinator of the research, with Parsons Brinckerhoff and the Transport Systems Centre of the University of South Australia contributing components. CSIRO prepared this report. The Transport and Population Data Centre of the NSW Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources provided the datasets of traffic and now owns the model framework. All of the research was made possible by a grant from the Australian Greenhouse Office.

• Modelling Responses of Urban Freight Patterns to Greenhouse Gas Abatement Scenarios
  
  wp_062.pdf
  (2.37 MB)

This report presents the results of a Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics (BTRE) study to update base case projections of greenhouse gas emissions from the Australian transport sector. This work updates previous projections provided to the Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO) in July 2003 as an unpublished consultancy report–Aggregate Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: Base Case Projections (Bottom-Up Approach) to 2020.

• Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Australian Transport: Base Case Projections to 2020
  
  cr_002_BTRE_AGO_05.pdf
  (6.44 MB)

The possibility of sustained high world oil prices has fueled concern over long-term supply. The question is particularly relevant for transport as a major user of oil with few viable alternatives. Internationally, there is a vigorous debate over the ability of this supply to satisfy ever-increasing demand, particularly with the growth in large fast-growth countries such as China and India. The debate can be complicated and, at times, highly emotional. The aim of this Working Paper is to provide an objective summary and analysis of the main issues in the debate.

• Is the World Running Out of Oil? A Review of the Debate
  
  wp_061.pdf
  (6.28 MB)

This report is part of a series of BTRE research on the socioeconomic costs of transport impacts and focuses on the health impact costs of motor vehicle emissions in Australian capital cities.

• Health Impacts of Transport Emissions in Australia: Economic Costs
  
  wp_063.pdf
  (3.19 MB)