Using the Bureau of Transport and Communications Economics' Road Infrastructure Assessment Model (RIAM), the Roads 2020 study makes forecasts at a strategic level of expenditure needs for investment and maintenance between 1998 and 2005 and between 2005 and 2020. It also indicates the locations and types of these expenditures. The forecasts cover non-urban roads and bridges which are either part of the National Highway System or are considered to be of national significance by the States and Territories. Expenditures predicted are upgrading road capacity (widening, adding lanes), town bypasses, maintenance, and bridge replacement. Some types of investment have been omitted because of data deficiencies or modelling difficulties. The exclusions are urban roads, flood mitigation projects, major realignment projects and widening roads used by road trains for safety reasons. Investments justified on social or equity grounds are also excluded. Traffic levels were forecast using population projections and origin-destination data. Total forecast expenditure needs for the National Highway System for the coming 22 year period have been estimated at $16.8 billion of which the backlog comprises $2.6 billion.

• Roads 2020
  
  wp_035.pdf
  (581.12 KB)

This research project was designed to explore the potential for economic synergies between the two regions and the role that transport might play in their development. The project was undertaken in conjunction with the Research and Development Agency of the Indonesian Ministry of Communications. This Report presents the results of the work of the Australian project team, focusing on northern Australian aspects.

• Transport Synergies Between Eastern Indonesia and Northern Australia
  
  report_097.pdf
  (1010.76 KB)

Article 16 bis was a last-minute addition to the Protocol negotiated in Kyoto in December 1997 at the third Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It calls on the Parties to develop rules and guidelines for emissions trading 'for the purpose of meeting quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments'. No concrete consideration has been given yet to the modalities of introducing a scheme for trading emissions in countries like Australia. It is therefore timely to identify at least some of the practical implications that any such scheme might have, if it were to be introduced at some time in the future. Most of the literature on trading in greenhouse emissions has focused either on international aspects, or on general principles. Much of the literature is also incestuous, because the same examples of the limited number of existing (non-greenhouse) schemes tend to be drawn on in each article or book. Little has been written on the likely effects on various sectors of domestic economies. Even less has been written on the difficult issue of how to take account of carbon sinks. By contrast, this Working Paper breaks new ground by identifying a number of practical issues that merit serious consideration if a workable scheme is to be implemented in the transport sector. Nevertheless, the authors are conscious of the strong likelihood that not all relevant issues have been addressed. Any comment would therefore be gratefully received.

• Tradeable Permits in Transport
  
  wp_037.pdf
  (183.48 KB)

The Bureau of Transport Economics (BTE) has developed and applied methods for forecasting light vehicle traffic on the nation's roads. This paper describes the methods and provides estimates and projections of light vehicle traffic within major Australian cities and on Australia's principal non-urban highways. A simple model was developed to predict the growth of total light vehicle traffic in each of Australia's major cities. When linked to congestion models, the BTE results presage a looming congestion problem in our cities. The most significant contribution of the Working Paper is the development of new models for long-term forecasting of light vehicle traffic on Australia's non-urban highways. As far as the BTE is aware, its methodology has not previously been used in Australian studies. Data from a number of different sources have been utilised to estimate interregional passenger travel by domestic residents and light vehicle highway traffic. The traffic projections indicate that growth in traffic volumes on the National Highway system will be greatest on those sections linking the major capitals; Adelaide Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane and regional centres in between.

• Forecasting Light Vehicle Traffic
  
  wp_038.pdf
  (4.44 MB)

Transport models have been used for several decades now, both for research, and as an analytical tool to assist planners and decision-makers. As the complexity of traffic and environmental problems in our cities has increased, policy makers have come to depend on models to an even greater extent. The immense increase in available computing power over the last decade has abetted this dependence. Customised software has simplified even the most complex mathematics to such an extent that modelling is no longer the preserve of a select few 'rocket scientists'. If asked, however, many policy analysts and decision-makers would probably admit to a lack of understanding of the models on the results of which they rely. Billions of dollars in resources are expended annually in Australia despite a lack of full understanding of the basis on which decisions are made. To assist both researchers and decision-makers, Dr William (Weiguo) Lu has dissected the major models that have been used to analyse urban transport tasks. This Working Paper therefore represents something of a 'scene-setter' for further work. While a purely non-technical approach is not feasible, he has sought to provide an intuitive exposition of the basic concepts involved, relying on a minimum of mathematical expression.

• Urban Transport Models: A Review
  
  wp_039.pdf
  (1.59 MB)

This report is one in a series expected to be published from research being undertaken into the costs of transport accidents by the Bureau of Transport Economics. The work reported on here relates to the economic costs of aviation accidents and incidents resulting from the operation of Australian aircraft in Australia for 1996.

• Cost of Civil Aviation Accidents and Incidents
  
  report_098.pdf
  (4.15 MB)

This Report develops further the findings of earlier work by the Bureau of Transport and Communications Economics and the Research and Development Agency of the Indonesian Ministry of Communications on transport in northern Australia and eastern Indonesia. It explores the adequacy of tourism and transport infrastructure in eastern Indonesia to a greater depth of detail than was possible in the earlier work. The focus of the report is on international tourism, because of its importance to eastern Indonesia following the onset of the financial crisis.

• Adequacy of Tourism Transport Infrastructure in Eastern Indonesia
  
  report_099.pdf
  (24.33 MB)

Transport models have been used for several decades now, both for research, and as an analytical tool to assist planners and decision-makers. As the complexity of traffic and environmental problems in our cities has increased, policy makers have come to depend on models to an even greater extent. The immense increase in available computing power over the last decade has abetted this dependence. Customised software has simplified even the most complex mathematics to such an extent that modelling is no longer the preserve of a select few 'rocket scientist'. If asked, however, many policy analysts and decision-makers would probably admit to a lack of understanding of the models on the results of which they rely. Billions of dollars in resources are expended annually in Australia despite a lack of full understanding of the basis on which decisions are made. To assist both researchers and decision-makers, Dr William (Weiguo) Lu has dissected the major models that have been used to analyse urban transport tasks. This Working Paper therefore represents something of a 'scene-setter' for further work. While a purely non-technical approach is not feasible, he has sought to provide an intuitive exposition of the basic concepts involved, relying on a minimum of mathematical expression.

• Competitive Neutrality Between Road and Rail
  
  wp_040.pdf
  (4.72 MB)

This working paper contains aviation statistics calculated for 1996 using the methodology of a previous BTCE Report 79. Statistics cover accidents, property damage and lost productivity.

• Cost of Civil Aviation Accidents and Incidents–Summary
  
  is_012.pdf
  (1.67 MB)

Benefit-cost analysis (BCA) is a valuable and widely used tool. To reduce the odds of misuse, this report probes some important methodological issues, especially as they relate to transport projects. The discussion is relatively non-technical and draws on case studies. The issues examined include claims that transport projects fail to measure certain benefits: employment creation, regional development, logistic adaptations and 'positive externalities'. Also examined are the choice of discount rate, the treatment of taxes, the valuation of travel time, multi-criteria analysis as an alternative to BCA, and the role of national economic models.

• Facts and Furphies in Benefit-Cost Analysis: Transport
  
  report_100.pdf
  (1.33 MB)