Understanding spatial patterns of population change is vital in planning for services and infrastructure and in managing the pressures created as local populations grow and decline. A large shock to the Australian economy and society, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, has the potential to create new pressure for settlement pattern change. This report investigates regional population change and internal migration flows during the peak period of the pandemic (2020-21), contrasting with a 5-year period representing the medium term, and the population change for 2021-22.

The report uses the BCARR migration geography, which separates regions by characteristics including city status and whether coastal, inland or remote.

This research was conducted by the University of South Australia (UniSA) between March 2022 and June 2023 and was co-funded by the Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts in partnership with the iMOVE Co-operative Research Centre.

The study addresses the following questions:

• What are the primary determinants of firm and residential location patterns across Australia?
• What are the drivers of or barriers to attracting and retaining businesses and households to regional cities, and how do they differ based on characteristics of businesses, households and regions?
• What are the possible long-term impacts of COVID-19 on firm and residential location decisions across metropolitan and regional cities?
• How are these impacts likely to influence resulting spatial patterns of employment activity and residential settlement within and across these cities?

To answer these questions UniSA undertook nationwide surveys of businesses, landlords and residents and conducted interviews and focus groups with residents across different city sizes and types, real estate and property developers, commercial landlords, state and local government officials, business owners and senior executives.

This study provides important insights for policymakers, businesses, and communities on current and possible future patterns of employment activity and residential settlement.

You can read the report Long-term pandemic impact on business and residential location to find out more.

Gross Regional Product (GRP) is an estimate of each region's unique contribution to the national economy. While Australian regional economies are interlinked, GRP can be used as an indicator of local economic activity.

BCARR has produced experimental estimates of GRP for 2015–16 and 2020–21. Estimates are produced using the ABS Statistical Areas Level 4 which broadly represents local labour markets. Information is also provided regarding GRP estimates for Northern Australia, which spans Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia.

These estimates are indicative of the economic activity in a region and should be used with caution. See the fact sheet for the conceptual and data limitations which may affect the estimates. Data can be found in the Excel file below or through our Experimental GRP estimates interactive map.

The research paper Creative skills for the future economy analyses the skills and qualifications of people working in creative fields and how these may be used in the future.

Below are additional publications related to cultural and creative activity:

The Department undertakes research, data collection and analysis related to issues affecting regional Australia. The information presented here allows policy makers, program administrators and researchers to understand the impacts their activities have on regional communities.

Statistical Analysis

• Population trends BCARR Migration Geography
  Fact sheet providing an overview of Australian population trends over the five years between 2016 and 2021, using BCARR migration geography.
• 2021 Estimated Resident Population
  Statistical fact sheet of the Estimated Resident Population for Australian regions and capital cities to June 2021.
• Snapshot of Cities and Regions—chart pack
  This chart pack provides a summary of population, employment, housing and liveability trends for our cities and regions.

Understanding regional data series

• Understanding statistical geography
  This fact sheet provides a quick guide to assist people to analyse regional data and consider what geographical scale most accurately represents their region/s of interest.
• Understanding regional data: Population
  This fact sheet provides a high level guide to finding and using regional population data.
• Understanding regional data: Employment
  This fact sheet provides a guide to sourcing, analysing and presenting regional employment data. It also includes a summary of other labour market data sources and their characteristics.
• Understanding regional data: Industry
  This fact sheet provides a guide for finding and analysing regional industry data. The fact sheet also describes methods for constructing key indices of industrial diversity and structural change across regions.
• Understanding Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA)
  This fact sheet provides a guide to understanding and using the Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. SEIFA is a set of four indexes which are used to compare relative advantage and disadvantage of small areas. 

Experimental Gross Regional Product estimates

• Experimental Gross Regional Product estimates

Gross Regional Product (GRP) is an estimate of each region's unique contribution to the national economy. While Australian regional economies are interlinked, GRP can be used as an indicator of local economic activity.

BCARR has produced experimental estimates of GRP for 2015–16 and 2020–21. The estimates are available for download and are accompanied by a fact sheet summarising GRP size and change across regions, as well as an interactive map page on the Regional Data Hub.

Estimates are produced using the ABS Statistical Areas Level 4 which broadly represents local labour markets. Information is also provided regarding GRP estimates for Northern Australia, which spans across Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia.

Population change and internal migration during the COVID-19 pandemic

Population change and internal migration during the COVID-19 pandemic

Understanding spatial patterns of population change is vital in planning for services and infrastructure, and in managing the pressures created as local populations grow and decline. A large shock to the Australian economy and society, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, has the potential to create new pressure for settlement pattern change. In this context, this report investigates regional population change and internal migration flows during the peak period of the pandemic (2020-21), contrasting with a five-year period representing the medium term, and the population change for 2021-22.

The report uses the BCARR migration geography, which separates regions by characteristics including city status, and whether coastal, inland or remote.

Working zones 2021 update

Working zones 2021 update

This fact sheet provides an update to the Working zones geography following the 2021 Australian Statistical Geography Standard. The Working zones statistical geography describes regions that reflect commuting patterns of Australian workers and can be used to analyse local labour markets. The release includes an excel correspondence and a shapefile to enable people to analyse their own data on this geography.

The future of Australian cities and regions in a post-pandemic world

iMOVE report - The future of Australian cities and regions in a post-pandemic world

This research was conducted by the University of South Australia (UniSA) between March 2022 and June 2023, and was co-funded by the Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts in partnership with the iMOVE Co-operative Research Centre.

The study addresses the following questions:

• What are the primary determinants of firm and residential location patterns across Australia?
• What are the drivers of or barriers to attracting and retaining businesses and households to regional cities, and how do they differ based on characteristics of businesses, households and regions?
• What are the possible long-term impacts of COVID-19 on firm and residential location decisions across metropolitan and regional cities?
• How are these impacts likely to influence resulting spatial patterns of employment activity and residential settlement within and across these cities?

To answer these questions, UniSA undertook nationwide surveys of businesses, landlords and residents, along with conducting interviews and focus groups with residents across different city sizes and types, real estate and property developers, commercial landlords, state and local government officials, business owners and senior executives.

This study provides important insights for policymakers, businesses, and communities on current and possible future patterns of employment activity and residential settlement.

Research

• Nearly twenty years of research within the Department on the important issues facing regional Australia: Research into Regional Australia.

This report assesses the current and future economic benefits of one aspect of the Australian Screen Production Incentive, the Location Incentive. The report provides an early indication on the impact of the program on the Australian screen industry and economy more broadly.

The analysis finds that the Location Incentive is projected to generate over $4.3 billion of production expenditure in the Australian economy by international film and television productions through to 2026–27.

The total program funding amount of $540 million will help Australia remain competitive in attracting international film and television productions to film here. The total number of screen productions attracted to Australia by the incentive is estimated to range from 48 to 55 by 2027.

There are also expected benefits from filming in regional areas, an expansion of Australia's screen industry, greater skills development for Australian screen sector workers, as well as regional tourism and cultural impacts.

BCARR research informs forecasts of peak bandwidth demand.

The latest research looked at the decade to 2028 and estimates that in 2018, 95% of Australian households had peak bandwidth demand of 24 megabits per second (Mbps) or less, but that this will increase to 56 Mbps by 2028.

For small businesses (with 1 to 19 employees), we estimate that 95% had bandwidth demand of 24 Mbps or less in 2018, which is forecast to rise to 37 Mbps in 2028.

Growth in household bandwidth demand is expected to be driven by video streaming and uptake of higher resolution formats such as 4K and 8K television. Increased adoption of streamed gaming and virtual reality will add to this demand.

Small business bandwidth demand will also be driven by video streaming and other applications such as file transfers and web browsing. Industries that provide guest WiFi, such as education and accommodation, are forecast to have the greatest bandwidth demand among small businesses.

The research also examined household data downloads and found that household data downloads are estimated to increase from 199 gigabytes (GB) per month in 2018, to 767 GB in 2028. This represents an average annual growth rate of 14% over the forecast period, with the increased uptake of higher resolution video streaming being the main driver for this growth.

Over the past decade the rollout of the National Broadband Network (NBN), the deployment of extensive 4G and 5G mobile networks, and the emergence of Low Earth Orbit satellites have increased access to high-speed broadband services right across Australia. The rapid change in broadband has seen households and firms take up internet services that are faster and of a much higher quality than ever before.

The Bureau of Communications Arts and Regional Research (BCARR) undertakes research projects to examine the economic and productivity benefits from improved broadband in Australia.

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Fixed broadband plays a vital role in connecting Australians, and significant public investment has been made to develop fixed broadband infrastructure with the rollout of the NBN.

Fixed broadband carries just under 90 per cent of all downloads in Australia and will remain an important part of Australia's broadband infrastructure.

It is therefore important that the performance of Australia's fixed broadband infrastructure is known and comparable to our international peers.

While existing international comparisons provide useful insights, data availability and challenges in comparing like for like indicators across countries mean that they do not always provide an accurate picture of Australia's relative performance. In particular, existing measures fall short in enabling comparisons between countries with similar economic compositions, technology, population and geographic features.

To provide transparency on Australia's relative performance and to facilitate more meaningful comparisons, the Bureau of Communications, Arts, and Regional Research (BCARR) will monitor indicators that are relevant to fixed broadband in Australia, and make comparisons to countries with similar economies and geography.