TRUCKMOD is BTCE's model of the Australian road freight vehicle fleet. It was designed principally to estimate the dynamic effects of policies that alter the distribution of the vehicle task. As far as BTCE is aware this is the first vintage specific model of the road freight vehicle fleet in Australia. The model covers the period 1991 to 2015.

• Costs of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Road Freight Vehicles: An Application of the BTCE TRUCKMOD Model
  
  wp_022.pdf
  (6.43 MB)

Policy instruments evaluated in this working paper are the accelerated implementation of fuel efficiency technology for new cars, the accelerated scrappage of highly polluting vehicles, tighter emission standards for new cars, and mandatory regular tuning of vehicles. Analysis of such policy options relies on the CARMOD model of the dynamics of the Australian car fleet.

• Costs of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Cars: an Application of the BTCE CARMOD Model
  
  wp_024.pdf
  (10.87 MB)

The value of transport safety is an important input to decisions on policies and investments with safety implications and for measuring the burden of transport accidents to the community. There are a number of approaches which may be used in valuing transport safety. The purpose of this Working Paper is to provide an appraisal of the approaches available and issues involved in valuing transport safety along with a survey of international developments.

• Valuing Transport Safety in Australia
  
  wp_026.pdf
  (5.43 MB)

The Bureau of Transport and Communications Economics (BTCE) is examining a number of issues in measuring the benefits of transport infrastructure investment. The issue examined in this paper is how to estimate the employment effects of road construction activity. Other papers from the same project have examined regional development effects, and certain tools for evaluating benefits.

• Employment Effects of Road Construction
  
  wp_029.pdf
  (4.18 MB)

Previous BTCE work (Report 94) has established that reductions in pavement roughness reduce fuel consumption, greenhouse gas emissions (end-use only) and vehicle operating costs. This Paper evaluates the effects on greenhouse gas emissions and vehicle operating costs of reducing the roughness of the National Highway System and the Pacific Highway over the period 1996–2015. The analysis takes account of the emissions involved in the production, transport and application of road rehabilitation materials. Some results of case studies of recently completed highway rehabilitation projects are included in the Paper.

• Roads, Vehicle Performance and Greenhouse: Costs and Emission Benefits of Smoother Highways
  
  wp_032.pdf
  (13.58 MB)

What role should the private sector play in road provision? Private contractors already perform a fair amount of the design, construction and maintenance of Australia's publicly owned roads. The evidence reviewed in this paper indicates benefits from further contracting out of road work to the private sector. In many cases, contracting out of road maintenance has reduced costs by 15 per cent or more. The evidence is less conclusive on the benefits of private investment in roads. Whether private toll roads are more efficient than other arrangements for road provision needs to be carefully examined case by case. Public ownership could be a better option than private ownership for some toll roads.

• Benefits of Private Sector Involvement In Road Provision: A Look at the Evidence
  
  wp_033.pdf
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Public debate on whether the road or the rail sector is relatively more disadvantaged in terms of competition tends naturally to be driven by the specific interests of the protagonists. The focus of the debate reflects changing issues as new, alleged discrepancies are discovered. It has therefore ranged from taxes paid, the extent of charges levied, and the degree of direct or indirect financial assistance provided by governments, and the fairness of increasing mass limits for heavy road vehicles. It is thus not surprising that the debate continues, and that it is not particularly fruitful or illuminating. The BTCE has adopted a different approach. Given the intensity of the debate and the fact that it has continued for so long, it was surprising that little or no systematic information exists on taxes and charges in the transport sector. The BTCE's first step was therefore to compile the lists presented in the appendixes (to which many public and private organisations and individuals generously contributed). Recognising that all four modes (it was not possible to include pipelines) are substitutes to some extent, the list is not limited to road and rail. Most importantly, the summary matrix in table 1 (liftout) and the underlying analytical approach reflect marginal cost principles in the hope that this methodology will assist objective comparisons between modes, as well as the formulation of policy options in any consideration of general taxation reform.

• Taxes and Charges in Australian Transport: A Transmodal Overview
  
  wp_034.pdf
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Using the Bureau of Transport and Communications Economics' Road Infrastructure Assessment Model (RIAM), the Roads 2020 study makes forecasts at a strategic level of expenditure needs for investment and maintenance between 1998 and 2005 and between 2005 and 2020. It also indicates the locations and types of these expenditures. The forecasts cover non-urban roads and bridges which are either part of the National Highway System or are considered to be of national significance by the States and Territories. Expenditures predicted are upgrading road capacity (widening, adding lanes), town bypasses, maintenance, and bridge replacement. Some types of investment have been omitted because of data deficiencies or modelling difficulties. The exclusions are urban roads, flood mitigation projects, major realignment projects and widening roads used by road trains for safety reasons. Investments justified on social or equity grounds are also excluded. Traffic levels were forecast using population projections and origin-destination data. Total forecast expenditure needs for the National Highway System for the coming 22 year period have been estimated at $16.8 billion of which the backlog comprises $2.6 billion.

• Roads 2020
  
  wp_035.pdf
  (581.12 KB)

The Bureau of Transport Economics (BTE) has developed and applied methods for forecasting light vehicle traffic on the nation's roads. This paper describes the methods and provides estimates and projections of light vehicle traffic within major Australian cities and on Australia's principal non-urban highways. A simple model was developed to predict the growth of total light vehicle traffic in each of Australia's major cities. When linked to congestion models, the BTE results presage a looming congestion problem in our cities. The most significant contribution of the Working Paper is the development of new models for long-term forecasting of light vehicle traffic on Australia's non-urban highways. As far as the BTE is aware, its methodology has not previously been used in Australian studies. Data from a number of different sources have been utilised to estimate interregional passenger travel by domestic residents and light vehicle highway traffic. The traffic projections indicate that growth in traffic volumes on the National Highway system will be greatest on those sections linking the major capitals; Adelaide Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane and regional centres in between.

• Forecasting Light Vehicle Traffic
  
  wp_038.pdf
  (4.44 MB)

Transport models have been used for several decades now, both for research, and as an analytical tool to assist planners and decision-makers. As the complexity of traffic and environmental problems in our cities has increased, policy makers have come to depend on models to an even greater extent. The immense increase in available computing power over the last decade has abetted this dependence. Customised software has simplified even the most complex mathematics to such an extent that modelling is no longer the preserve of a select few 'rocket scientist'. If asked, however, many policy analysts and decision-makers would probably admit to a lack of understanding of the models on the results of which they rely. Billions of dollars in resources are expended annually in Australia despite a lack of full understanding of the basis on which decisions are made. To assist both researchers and decision-makers, Dr William (Weiguo) Lu has dissected the major models that have been used to analyse urban transport tasks. This Working Paper therefore represents something of a 'scene-setter' for further work. While a purely non-technical approach is not feasible, he has sought to provide an intuitive exposition of the basic concepts involved, relying on a minimum of mathematical expression.

• Competitive Neutrality Between Road and Rail
  
  wp_040.pdf
  (4.72 MB)