Freight measurement and modelling in Australia

This report summarises the existing knowledge of freight in Australia and presents the time series data, analysis and sources which underpin the BTRE's long-term freight forecasts. Consistently measured time series data are required to model and forecast freight flows. The report describes the methodologies evolved by the BTRE to do this. It includes the results of modelling and forecasting undertaken using the derived series. Non-bulk freight is projected to increase by 82% in tonne-kilometre terms between 2003 and 2020 (average 3.6% per year).

The expected rate of growth in gross domestic product and reductions in freight rates are the key drivers of this growth as well as a continuing trend to national distribution by manufacturers, wholesalers and importers. With Treasury projecting some fall-off in the long-term economic growth, the non-bulk growth rate is slightly lower than in the recent past. Based on past trends, road's share of national non-bulk freight is projected to increase marginally from 74% to 76%, with the rail share declining from 21% to 17% and sea freight making up the balance (with air freight vanishingly small in tonne-kilometre terms, albeit not in value).

These mode share projections do not take account of the potential for rejuvenation of rail on north-south routes, in somewhat the same manner as has already occurred on east-west routes. Capital city freight tonne-kilometres are projected to grow by 3.0% a year between 2003 and 2020 (compared with a 1971–2003 average of 5.0%). While heavy vehicles comprise only 4% of the metropolitan traffic stream, growth of this level implies a slight increase in the heavy vehicle proportion (to 4.2% in 2020).

Rail is expected to remain the largest mode in shipping bulk freight (46% share in 2003, 45% in 2020), followed by sea freight (30% and 29% shares respectively). Rail is well suited for transporting Australia's large export tonnages in coal, other minerals and grains to port. Rail freight has fallen in most other bulk commodities.